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This study estimated the costs and benefits of increased penetration of plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) in the state of Arizona, for two different penetration scenarios between 2030 and 2050.

This study estimated the costs and benefits of increased penetration of plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) in the state of Arizona, for two different penetration scenarios between 2030 and 2050. The “Moderate PEV” scenario is based on the Transportation Electrification Goals in Arizona Corporation Commissioner Andy Tobin’s 2018 Draft Energy Modernization Plan, which includes a state-wide goal of one million PEVs registered in Arizona by 2050. The “High PEV” scenario includes more aggressive PEV penetration levels that would be required to achieve deep reductions in vehicle air pollution emissions.

This study focused on passenger vehicles (cars and light trucks). There are additional opportunities for electrification of non-road equipment and medium- and heavy-duty trucks and buses, but evaluation of these applications was beyond the scope of this study.

The study estimated the benefits that would accrue to all electric utility customers in Arizona due to increased utility revenues from PEV charging. This revenue could be used to support operation and maintenance of the electrical grid, thus reducing the need for future electricity rate increases. These benefits were estimated for a baseline scenario in which Arizona drivers plug in and start to charge their vehicles as soon as they arrive at home or work (baseline charging). The study also evaluated the additional benefits that could be achieved by providing Arizona drivers with price signals or incentives to delay the start of PEV charging until after the daily peak in electricity demand (managed off-peak charging).